With so much COVID pandemic information and data available on the web, I sometimes find it difficult to make sense of it all. Let alone assess the pandemic risk.
In order, to better assess the pandemic risk, I selected a few key metrics to track. This data analysis is compiled for the state of Nevada. The source of this data is available on official websites links provided at the end of this article.
Summary:
- Nevada seems to have done a good job at balancing the opening of the economy with the pandemic risk
- PPE and social distancing seems to be effective
- The probability of dying for COVID-19 is less than 0.2%/ This is about equal to the combined number of yearly deaths from a bad flu season and accidents (such as traffic accidents; etc.)
- The upcoming flu season is a concern as this combined with COVID is significant (see Chart 2). However, since both are air borne virus the mandated social distancing and PPE might help to mitigate this.
- The risk to elderly and those with pre-existing conditions is significant (Table 1)
- We are not out of the woods yet, but with a vaccine on the horizon; hopefully, we can begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Chart 1 below shows a track of Nevada COVID related deaths per year and percent COVID ICU capacity utilization (the lower the % number the better). The data is normalized to one year.
Chart 1
From the Chart 1, what is apparent is that the actual number of COVID related deaths per 100,000 population decreased after the March shutdown of all non-essential businesses, but steadily increased as the economy opened. And seems to have stabilized around a yearly projection of ~100 deaths per 100K population. So, social distancing, mandating mask wearing, and slowly allowing business to reopen appears to be effective in managing the pandemic. I would suggest that had these steps had not been taken, the COVID related deaths would have been much worse.
The anomaly of Chart 1 is that as the economy is slowly reopened and the COVID related deaths have increased, the percent of COVID patient ICU utilization capacity has steadily declined.
What initially triggered the panic and governments declaring a state of emergency resulting in a global economic shutdown was that that the pandemic was overwhelming the back-end of the health care system – ICU bed capacity. As the chart 1 reveals, the COVID deaths per year is higher than when the economy was shut down in March. However, the percent of COVID ICU capacity utilization has steadily declined. This continually improving metric is what seems to be driving government decision to slowly reopen the economy.
So, why has the percent of COVID ICU capacity utilization steadily improved? I can only speculate, but it could be due to several factors:
- Medical profession has learned to treat the disease with improved medicines. Improved understanding of treating the bodies inflammation reaction to COVID and how to treat it.
- Early detection as patients who feel they might be infected seek treatment much sooner
- Improved contact tracing
- Populations most at risk have taken steps to social isolate and wear PPE.
Chart 2 attempts to put COVID risk into perspective.
As of Sept, 20th data, the yearly normalized COVID forecast deaths approximately equals the combined deaths due to flu (Chronic lower respiratory disease) and accidents. This risk level is significant and cannot be ignored, but seems manageable so far.
To further put the pandemic risk into perspective, Table 1 clearly shows that COVID pandemic risk is significantly skewed towards the elderly (and those with preexisting conditions).
Table 1.
Finally, the probability of dying from COVID in a given year is less than 0.2% (out of total Nevada population of ~ 3 million).
The flu season is upon us and what is worrying officials is the combine regular flu and COVID deaths could reach ~ 21% of total deaths which rivals cancer fatalities (Chart 2). Offsetting this is the public practicing social distancing, and since both the flu and COVID are airborne virus this might mitigated the rate of infections. However, given the high transmission rate of this disease its best to error on the side of caution; So, I suggest one gets a flu shot this season.
Governments at the federal and state levels have the difficult task of balancing reopening the economy while maintaining an acceptable risk tolerance Nevada government and populous was able to stabilize the pandemic risk, but with extreme measures such as social distancing, PPE and shutting down the economy. In addition, there is correlation between the virus rate of infections and population density. However, the probability of a healthy individual dying from COVID is quite low, so could explain why we see some agitation in the younger (<50) population forced to social distance; etc, while seeing their livelihood put in economic jeopardy.
In conclusion, yes the pandemic is risk is real. One take away is that this pandemic is not once size fits all but can be managed with the correct precautions. Governments and business should make allowances for those populations most at risk.
For example, all senior living facilities in Nevada went into lockdown early in March by not allow visitors, and implementing strict quarantine procedures. Some business and academia allowing employees to work from home where possible. Safely opening K through 12 schools is tricky as the young are least at risk, but elderly teachers and those with preexisting conditions are.
I hope this information helps clear the fog surrounding this pandemic and adds some perspective. Hopefully by early next year a vaccine will become available and by next summer most of us will have been inoculated.
Stay well.
-Glen
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